Let’s start off with the good news as we look through our Derby Week forecast, and that will be the pleasant temperatures. We can expect highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s through Thursday, then hovering around 70° for Oaks and Derby.
Now, the bad news, as we’ll have to do our best to dodge plenty of rain and storm chances Tuesday through Friday. Starting with Tuesday, when showers and storms arrive in the afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has our area in a Level 2 (Slight Risk) of Severe Storms for Tuesday. Afternoon heating in the low 80s will create an unstable atmosphere, along with wind shear, will provide the ingredients for some storms to become strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and hail possible.
The showers and storms Tuesday afternoon and evening arrive with a stationary front that will lay across the region through Thursday. Therefore, expect periods of showers and storms Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. With locally heavy rain possible, we’ll need to watch out for the potential of flash flooding. The last round of storms will move out Thursday night, but some lingering spotty light rain showers could stick around for Oaks on Friday. Rainfall totals of at least 1-2″ will be possible this week.
Thankfully, we’re expecting all sunshine and highs near 70° for Derby Day Saturday.
Have a good Monday and a great Derby Week! – Meteorologist Ben Peine
